On November 12, Jensen Huang resigned as chief executive of Nvidia, the company he co-founded 33 years ago, following reports of a board investigation into his personal conduct. Chief financial officer Colette Kress is serving as interim CEO while the board searches for a successor.

The coverage since has focused on what happens next at Nvidia. We are not going to guess. Instead, we went back through history to a question that can actually be answered: when a company loses the person who built or defined it, what has its stock done over the following year?

How we chose the cases

We looked at fifteen well-known departures of founders or defining chief executives at large US-listed companies since 1985. We included every kind of exit: leaders forced out by their boards, leaders who left because of illness, and leaders who handed over the job on their own schedule. For each, we measured the stock from the close before the news through the first week, three months, six months and a year, and compared it with the S&P 500 over the same periods.

Some famous cases could not be included because the company was private at the time, including Travis Kalanick at Uber in 2017, Adam Neumann at WeWork in 2019 and Jack Dorsey's first exit from Twitter in 2008. Fifteen cases is a set of examples, not a statistical study, and we treat it that way.

‍

Stock price change in the 12 months after the defining leader left

10 of 14 stocks trailed the S&P 500. The exceptions were enormous.

The company's stockS&P 500, same 12 months
Apple, 1985Unplanned exit+129%S&P +27%
Microsoft, 2000Planned handoff-49%S&P -8%
HP, 2010Unplanned exit-30%S&P +7%
Apple, 2011Health+76%S&P +20%
American Apparel, 2014Unplanned exitBankrupt within 16 monthsn/a
Papa John's, 2017Unplanned exit-31%S&P -10%
Wynn Resorts, 2018Unplanned exit-20%S&P +1%
Intel, 2018Unplanned exit-12%S&P +7%
Fiat Chrysler, 2018Health-31%S&P +6%
CBS, 2018Unplanned exit-22%S&P +4%
Oracle, 2019Health+1%S&P +11%
McDonald's, 2019Unplanned exit+10%S&P +7%
Disney, 2020Planned handoff+49%S&P +22%
Amazon, 2021Planned handoff-11%S&P +20%
Berkshire Hathaway, 2025Planned handoff-12%S&P +27%
-50%0%+50%+100%

Each pair compares the company's 12-month return with the S&P 500's over the same dates.

Source: Commons Capital analysis of daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance data. Measured from the last close before each announcement became public. Price returns, adjusted for stock splits; dividends are excluded for both the stocks and the S&P 500 index. Fiat Chrysler paid $2.19 a share in dividends during its 12 months, including a special dividend; with dividends, its return was about -20%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Educational only; not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

‍

What the record shows

1. Most of these stocks trailed the market for the following year

In 10 of the 14 cases with a full year of data, the stock did worse than the S&P 500 over the next twelve months, by a median of about 21 percentage points. The fifteenth, American Apparel, filed for bankruptcy in October 2015, sixteen months after its board moved to remove founder Dov Charney. The company was already losing money before he left.

2. That is worse than normal, but less unusual than it sounds

Trailing the index is the ordinary result for a single stock. A handful of very large winners carry the S&P 500, so in most years most of its members do worse than the index itself. S&P Dow Jones Indices found that from 2001 through 2024, an average of 46% of S&P 500 stocks beat the index in years when the market rose, and 56% in years when it fell. In 2024, only 28% did.

So the typical stock trails the index a little more often than not. Ten of fourteen is worse than that. But with so few cases, a split this lopsided could turn up by chance roughly one time in seven. The fair reading is that these departures were followed by worse-than-usual results, not that losing a leader reliably sinks a stock.

3. The exceptions were among the biggest winners of their era

Apple shows up twice, at both ends of Steve Jobs's career. In September 1985, after losing a boardroom struggle with chief executive John Sculley, Jobs resigned from the company he had co-founded. Apple's stock rose 129% over the next year, against 27% for the S&P 500. In August 2011, as his health failed, Jobs handed the CEO role to Tim Cook. The stock rose 76% in the following year, against 20% for the index. Disney, which named Bob Chapek to succeed Bob Iger weeks before the pandemic closed its parks, rose 49% over the next year.

In all three, the business the leader left behind was already moving. Apple's stock had fallen to a four-year low by June 1985, months before Jobs resigned, and the company had already cut a fifth of its workforce. Macintosh shipments roughly doubled in 1986, by one analyst's estimate, and earnings rose 151% in the fiscal year that followed. In 2011, Cook had spent 13 years at Apple, most recently as chief operating officer running its worldwide sales and operations, and the iPhone and iPad were already selling. Revenue grew 45% in the next fiscal year. Disney+ had launched about three months before Iger stepped aside, and it had 94.9 million paid subscribers by January 2021, while the broader market recovered from its pandemic low.

4. The first week said little about the year

HP fell 13% in the week after Mark Hurd's resignation in 2010 and ended the year down 30%. But Disney fell 9% in its first week, in the early days of the pandemic, and ended the year up 49%. Berkshire Hathaway fell 5% in the week after Warren Buffett named Greg Abel as his successor, and fell 12% over the year while the S&P 500 rose 27%. And in 2011, Apple rose just 2% in its first week, less than the market, before climbing 76% over the year.

5. Why the leader left did not sort the winners from the losers

Planned handoffs did not reliably do better than unplanned exits. Amazon trailed the market by 31 points in the year after Jeff Bezos named Andy Jassy as his successor, and Microsoft fell 49% in the year after Bill Gates gave the CEO job to Steve Ballmer. Meanwhile, McDonald's beat the index in the year after its board dismissed Steve Easterbrook in 2019.

6. Other forces often mattered more than the change at the top

Microsoft's handoff came two months before the dot-com bubble burst. Disney's came as the pandemic began. Intel's 2018 change came as it struggled with delays in its manufacturing technology. In many of these cases, the year after the departure tells you more about the business and the economy than about the person who left.

‍

The full record

Fifteen departures, four time periods.

CompanyFirst week3 months6 months12 months
Apple, 1985Steve Jobs resigns after losing power struggleFirst week: +11%S&P +1%3 months: +37%S&P +16%6 months: +71%S&P +29%12 months: +129%S&P +27%
Microsoft, 2000Bill Gates hands CEO role to Steve BallmerFirst week: 0%S&P +1%3 months: -25%S&P +2%6 months: -24%S&P +4%12 months: -49%S&P -8%
HP, 2010Mark Hurd resigns after conduct inquiryFirst week: -13%S&P -4%3 months: -6%S&P +9%6 months: +2%S&P +17%12 months: -30%S&P +7%
Apple, 2011Steve Jobs resigns for health; Tim Cook named CEOFirst week: +2%S&P +4%3 months: -2%S&P -1%6 months: +39%S&P +16%12 months: +76%S&P +20%
American Apparel, 2014Board removes founder Dov CharneyFirst week: +6%S&P 0%3 months: +30%S&P +3%6 months: +56%S&P +5%12 months: n/a
Papa John's, 2017Founder John Schnatter steps down as CEOFirst week: -5%S&P 0%3 months: -2%S&P +1%6 months: -6%S&P +2%12 months: -31%S&P -10%
Wynn Resorts, 2018Founder Steve Wynn resignsFirst week: +1%S&P -1%3 months: +18%S&P -1%6 months: -6%S&P +6%12 months: -20%S&P +1%
Intel, 2018Brian Krzanich resigns after conduct inquiryFirst week: -9%S&P -2%3 months: -12%S&P +6%6 months: -15%S&P -11%12 months: -12%S&P +7%
Fiat Chrysler, 2018Sergio Marchionne replaced after surgery complicationsFirst week: -12%S&P +1%3 months: -20%S&P -1%6 months: -13%S&P -5%12 months: -31%S&P +6%
CBS, 2018Leslie Moonves resignsFirst week: 0%S&P +1%3 months: -9%S&P -8%6 months: -12%S&P -4%12 months: -22%S&P +4%
Oracle, 2019Co-CEO Mark Hurd takes medical leaveFirst week: -7%S&P 0%3 months: 0%S&P +5%6 months: -21%S&P -9%12 months: +1%S&P +11%
McDonald's, 2019Steve Easterbrook dismissedFirst week: 0%S&P +1%3 months: +10%S&P +5%6 months: -6%S&P -8%12 months: +10%S&P +7%
Disney, 2020Bob Iger hands CEO role to Bob ChapekFirst week: -9%S&P -4%3 months: -8%S&P -6%6 months: +1%S&P +10%12 months: +49%S&P +22%
Amazon, 2021Jeff Bezos announces Andy Jassy as successorFirst week: -2%S&P +2%3 months: +3%S&P +9%6 months: -1%S&P +15%12 months: -11%S&P +20%
Berkshire Hathaway, 2025Warren Buffett announces Greg Abel as successorFirst week: -5%S&P 0%3 months: -12%S&P +10%6 months: -12%S&P +20%12 months: -12%S&P +27%

Source: Commons Capital analysis of daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance data. Measured from the last close before each announcement became public. Price returns, adjusted for stock splits; dividends are excluded for both the stocks and the S&P 500 index. Fiat Chrysler paid $2.19 a share in dividends during its 12 months, including a special dividend; with dividends, its return was about -20%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Educational only; not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. American Apparel filed for bankruptcy in October 2015; a 12-month price is not available in our data.

‍

What this means for an investor

History does not say how Nvidia's stock will do, and we are not making that call. What these fifteen cases do offer is a way to think about news like this in any holding:

  • The first reaction is a poor guide. In these cases, the first week said little about the year that followed. That is a weak argument for selling, or buying, on the headline alone.
  • Ask what the leader left behind. The exceptions had successors who already knew the business and products that were already selling. The useful question is whether the reason you own a company is the person at the top or a business whose direction is already set.
  • Know how much you own, including through funds. As of October 30, Nvidia was the second-largest company in the S&P 500, behind only Apple, whose 7.7% weight was the largest in the index. Nvidia was about 6% of the index in mid-November. For illustration, at that weight, an investor with $2 million in S&P 500 index funds would own about $120,000 of Nvidia without having chosen to.
  • Weigh what selling would cost in tax. For a long-held position with a large gain, the answer may favor trimming gradually over a single sale, or pairing sales with losses elsewhere in the portfolio.

Because we build portfolios from individual securities across asset classes, position size is a deliberate decision for every holding, and a change like this one is something we can respond to company by company, with each client's tax picture in view. That is part of our ordinary Investment Management work.

Quick answers

When did Jensen Huang resign from Nvidia?

Nvidia announced on November 12, 2026, that Huang had resigned as president, chief executive and director, effective immediately. CFO Colette Kress was named interim CEO.

How do stocks perform after a founder or longtime CEO leaves?

In our review of fifteen well-known departures since 1985, 10 of 14 stocks with a full year of data trailed the S&P 500 over the following twelve months. That is worse than usual, since in a typical year a little more than half of S&P 500 stocks trail the index. The exceptions, including Apple in 1985 and 2011, beat the index by wide margins. The sample is small, and results varied widely.

How did Apple stock do after Steve Jobs stepped down?

After Jobs resigned as CEO in August 2011, Apple's stock rose 76% over the next twelve months, excluding dividends, against 20% for the S&P 500.

Does a planned CEO succession protect a stock?

Not reliably, in these cases. Amazon, Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway all trailed the S&P 500 in the year after planned handoffs, while Disney beat it.

How much of the S&P 500 is Nvidia?

As of October 30, 2026, Nvidia was the second-largest company in the S&P 500 by index weight, behind Apple at 7.7%. By mid-November, after its decline, it was about 6%. Anyone who owns an S&P 500 index fund owns Nvidia in proportion to its market value.

How we calculated the figures

Returns run from the last close before each announcement became public to the close one week (five trading days), three months, six months and twelve months later, using the last trading day on or before each date. Where a company announced the change after the market closed, the starting point is that day's close. Figures are price returns from daily closing prices in Yahoo Finance data, adjusted for stock splits, and are compared with the S&P 500 index; dividends are excluded from both. For Berkshire Hathaway, the S&P 500 is measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's share price. Fiat Chrysler paid $2.19 a share in dividends during its 12-month period, including a special dividend, so its price return understates its result; with dividends, its 12-month return was about -20%. Fiat Chrysler figures use its New York-listed shares. CBS figures use the shares of its successor company, Paramount. Figures are rounded.

The comparison with all S&P 500 stocks uses S&P Dow Jones Indices' calendar-year figures, not the same 12-month windows as our cases. The one-in-seven figure is a rough estimate that treats each case as an independent draw in which a stock trails the index 54% of the time, the S&P Dow Jones Indices average for rising markets.

Sources

‍

This material is educational and reflects our analytical framework. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Holdings discussed may or may not be currently held in client portfolios. The cases shown are examples, not a statistical sample, and do not predict the performance of any company. The index fund example is hypothetical and for illustration only. Consult your tax and legal advisors before making investment decisions.

Commons Capital is a fee-based fiduciary Registered Investment Adviser regulated under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Additional information, including our Form ADV Part 2, is available on the SEC's Investment Adviser Public Disclosure system.